Ato Forson leads Bawumia by 18 points in 2028 poll; Asiedu Nketia ahead by 12

Finance Minister Dr Cassiel Ato Forson has opened up a commanding lead over former Vice President Dr Mahamudu Bawumia in a simulated 2028 presidential contest, according to a new Global Info Analytics poll released Tuesday.

The March 2026 tracking survey shows Dr Forson securing 55% support against Dr Bawumia’s 37% in a multi-candidate race — an 18-point gap that exceeds both the margin recorded in the 2024 general election and the projected performance of rival NDC contender, Johnson Asiedu Nketia.

Lead pollster Mussa Dankwah said the figures highlight the National Democratic Congress’s continued strength among its base.

He added that emerging voter trends, particularly among those who skipped the 2024 elections, could deepen the New Patriotic Party’s challenges.

“The data reflects the NDC’s dominance with its core support, while absentee voter patterns present additional risks for the NPP beyond the headline numbers,” he noted.

In a separate matchup, Mr Asiedu Nketia also leads Dr Bawumia, polling 51% to 39% — a 12-point advantage. While still significant, that margin falls short of Dr Forson’s stronger showing in the same survey.

The poll’s findings suggest that both leading NDC figures are positioned ahead of the NPP’s likely flagbearer by what analysts would consider comfortable margins at this stage of the electoral cycle.

For context, President John Mahama defeated Dr Bawumia in the December 2024 election by 15 percentage points, securing 56% of the vote against 41%. The latest projections indicate that Dr Forson would outperform that margin if elections were held today, while Mr Asiedu Nketia would come close but slightly underperform it.

Other candidates from the 2024 race posted marginal numbers in the simulation. Alan Kyeremanten, who ran as an independent under the Movement for Change, secured 3% in the Forson scenario and 4% in the Asiedu Nketia matchup. Businessman Nana Kwame Bediako trailed with 2% and 3% respectively.

The survey forms part of Global Info Analytics’ ongoing national tracking polls, which have consistently placed Dr Forson and Mr Asiedu Nketia as the top contenders within the NDC, although the party is yet to officially open nominations for its 2028 presidential primaries.

Dr Bawumia, who led the NPP into the 2024 elections, is widely expected to lead the party again in 2028.

MyJoyOnline