Institute of Economic Research and Public Policy (IERPP) Position Paper: Analysis of the 2025 National Economic Dialogue

The Institute of Economic Research and Public Policy (IERPP), a nonpartisan think tank advocating for evidence-based governance and equitable economic policies acknowledges the Government of Ghana’s initiative to convene the National Economic Dialogue (NED) as a timely and necessary step toward addressing the country’s pressing economic challenges. The dialogue’s emphasis on inclusivity, actionable solutions, and sustainable growth aligns with the IERPP’s mission to promote evidence-based governance and equitable policies. However, while the thematic focus areas are commendable, the dialogue’s design and execution require rigorous scrutiny to ensure it delivers transformative outcomes rather than reinforcing existing systemic inequities.

Commendations

The NED’s commitment to fostering a participatory platform for diverse stakeholders, including the private sector, civil society, and academia is a significant strength. President Mahama’s keynote theme, “Resetting Ghana: Building the Economy We Want Together,” signals an intention to move beyond top-down policymaking and embrace collective ownership of economic reforms. This approach is particularly vital in a context where public trust in institutions has been eroded by austerity measures and governance failures. The inclusion of governance and anti-corruption as a thematic pillar is also laudable, as corruption remains a critical barrier to Ghana’s development, costing the nation an estimated GHC 5.7 billion annually in procurement-related fraud alone. By addressing this issue head-on, the dialogue has the potential to restore confidence in public institutions.

The focus on macroeconomic stability is equally pragmatic, given Ghana’s post-pandemic debt challenges, with public debt hovering near GHS 721 billion in 2024. Learning from the mixed outcomes of the 2014 Senchi Consensus, which stabilized the cedi but exacerbated inequality through regressive austerity, the NED appears to recognize the need for balancing fiscal discipline with social equity. Similarly, the emphasis on economic transformation through value-added sectors like agro-processing and digital industrialization aligns with global trends toward sustainable diversification and positions Ghana to leverage opportunities under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

Critiques

Despite these strengths, the NED’s framework suffers from critical ambiguities that risk undermining its impact.

First, the dialogue lacks specificity on how macroeconomic stability will be achieved. While fiscal consolidation is essential, the absence of clear commitments to progressive taxation, such as wealth taxes or closing loopholes for extractive industries—raises concerns that austerity measures could disproportionately affect vulnerable populations, as seen during the 2015 VAT hikes. Without explicit safeguards for social protection programs like LEAP or Free SHS, stability efforts may replicate the inequities of past reforms.

Second, the emphasis on private sector-led growth, while economically rational, risks privileging large corporations over SMEs and informal enterprises, which constitute over 80% of Ghana’s economy. For instance, agro-industrial expansion without parallel land tenure reforms could marginalize smallholder farmers, while public-private partnerships (PPPs) in infrastructure may prioritize profitability over equitable access, as seen in controversial power purchase agreements. Similarly, the thematic session on structural reforms remains worryingly vague, omitting actionable plans to address land tenure insecurity, inefficient state-owned enterprises (SOEs), or regulatory bottlenecks. Ghana’s SOEs, such as the Tema Oil Refinery, have drained over GHC 10 billion in public funds since 2020, yet their restructuring is conspicuously absent from the agenda.

Furthermore, while anti-corruption is a stated priority, the dialogue stops short of proposing bold enforcement mechanisms. Lifestyle audits for public officials, whistleblower protections, and campaign finance reforms—proven tools for accountability—are not mentioned. Ghana’s stagnant ranking (72/180) on Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index since 2016 underscores the need for concrete action rather than rhetorical commitments.

Lastly, the NED’s inclusivity claims are undermined by its centralization in Accra and the underrepresentation of marginalized groups. Rural stakeholders, youth unemployment advocates, and climate-vulnerable communities, such as those displaced by Volta Region floods, have limited avenues to shape the agenda. This urban-elite bias risks perpetuating spatial inequalities, particularly the developmental gap between northern and southern Ghana.

Recommendations

To maximize the NED’s potential, the IERPP urges the government to adopt measurable, equity-centered policies. Macroeconomic stability efforts must prioritize progressive taxation over regressive measures, with social programs ring-fenced from budget cuts. Private sector growth should be rebalanced through an SME Development Fund offering low-interest loans and tech-training hubs, complemented by local content quotas in PPP projects. Structural reforms demand clarity: a white paper on SOE restructuring and land titling initiatives should be published post-dialogue. Anti-corruption efforts require institutional teeth, including fast-tracking the Conduct of Public Officers Bill and establishing an independent Anti-Corruption Court. Finally, decentralizing participation through regional town halls and reserving 30% of dialogue seats for marginalized groups would ensure policies reflect grassroots realities.

The 2025 National Economic Dialogue represents a pivotal opportunity to reset Ghana’s economic trajectory. However, its success hinges on transcending rhetoric through binding accountability mechanisms, equitable resource allocation, and centering marginalized voices. By learning from past missteps, such as the Senchi Consensus’s austerity backlash, the NED can chart a path toward sustainable, inclusive growth. The IERPP calls on the government to publish a post-dialogue action plan with clear timelines and metrics, ensuring Ghana’s recovery leaves no citizen behind.

Signed,
Institute of Economic Research and Public Policy (IERPP)
“Evidence for Equity, Policy for Progress”