67 DAYS TO ELECTION: Mahama leads with 51.1% as Bawumia trails with 37.3% – Global InfoAnalytics

A final field survey done by Global InfoAnalytics showed John Dramani Mahama (JDM), the opposition leader of the National Democratic Congress (NDC), holding a commanding lead over his closest challenger, Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia (DMB) of the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP).

According to the study, Bawumia trails Mahama with 37.3% of the devoted voters, while Mahama leads with 51.1%. With 1.3% of the vote, other contenders trail behind independents Alan Kwadwo Kyeremanten (AKK) and Nana Kwame Bediako (NKB), with 4.1% and 6.2%, respectively.

Mahama continues to lead with 49.3% of likely voters vs Bawumia’s 35.9% in the unweighted likely voters’ model.

With a significant 31-point advantage (54% to 23%) over Bawumia among floating voters, as well as an additional 18-point advantage among voters who declined to reveal their party affiliations, Mahama has a significant lead over Bawumia. Mahama also has an increasing advantage over Bawumia among first-time voters, outpacing her 46% to 38%; this is an improvement from a tie result in July 2024.

One concerning development for Bawumia is that, despite being a target audience for his campaign, his support among Muslims has been declining, falling by about 4% between July and October of 2024.

Additionally, the poll shows changes among those who voted for President Nana Akufo-Addo in 2020. Seventy percent of those voters still support Bawumia, while 19% have moved to support Mahama and five percent have each moved to Kyeremanten and Bediako. 20% and 37% of 2020 NPP voters in pivotal areas like Greater Accra and Central, respectively, now favor Mahama.

After including the Bono area in his column since the July survey, Mahama now leads in 12 regions in terms of regional domination. Greater Accra, Central, Western, Western North, Bono, Bono East, Northern, Savannah, Upper East, Upper West, Oti, and Volta areas are currently under his charge. However, in the Ashanti, Eastern, Ahafo, and North East regions, Bawumia is in the lead.

Both Nana Kwame Bediako and Alan Kyeremanten are becoming serious competitors, particularly in the Ashanti and Eastern regions, where their combined influence is undermining Bawumia’s hegemony. Bawumia is still leading with 66% in the Ashanti area, followed by Mahama at 22%, Bediako at 7%, and Kyeremanten at 4%. The NPP wants to win 85% of the vote in this region.

Additionally, Bawumia is trailing his candidates in 79 constituencies, indicating the possible influence of Kyeremanten and Bediako on the prospects of the ruling party. Mahama is outperforming his party’s parliamentary candidates in 56 of the 111 constituencies.

The study emphasizes the primary themes influencing voters ahead of the December elections: the economy, jobs, and education. With 70% of respondents listing it as their main concern, the economy continues to be the most pressing problem, followed by jobs (62%) and education (48%). The state of the economy has an impact on voters as well; 55% of respondents cite it as a significant issue. This is followed by party performance (40%), candidate credibility (34%), and party manifestos (28%).

The NDC has a 14-point advantage over the NPP in terms of manifesto favorability, with the NPP’s manifesto having a net favorability rating of +6 points.

The study emphasizes the primary themes influencing voters ahead of the December elections: the economy, jobs, and education. With 70% of respondents listing it as their main concern, the economy continues to be the most pressing problem, followed by jobs (62%) and education (48%). The state of the economy has an impact on voters as well; 55% of respondents cite it as a significant issue. This is followed by party performance (40%), candidate credibility (34%), and party manifestos (28%).

The NDC has a 14-point advantage over the NPP in terms of manifesto favorability, with the NPP’s manifesto having a net favorability rating of +6 points.