Economic Growth On Wheels: Ten years from now – Can Ghana reach a US$200billion economy?
Inasmuch as we live in an imperfect global market; there are many untapped resources and opportunities economies are presented with. The advanced economies are not resting on their oars either. But, for the joy in expanding their economic authority; these economies are constantly engaging in research and development in line with not only what prevailing conditions (rising energy and food prices/inflationary pressures and supply chain disruptions and fluctuations) present to them but what they also have to offer prevailing conditions.
Economists predict an emergence of a new race owing to how nations are developing at a faster pace. In his piece, Next decade: Could India reach a 20-trillion, China a 90-trillion, and the USA a 50-trillion Economy? Naseem Javed talks about why global populace will seek better skills for the ‘mentality of performance’ as an essential economic survival necessity. He further reintroduces the concept of “Entrepreneurial mysticism” which is taking the centre stage in the next decade and why western economies (global leaders) must uplift their national citizenries to stand up to the global age of competitiveness like China is doing. https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2024/08/29/next-decade-could-india-reach-a-20-trillion-china-a-90-trillion-and-the-usa-a-50-trillion-economy/
According to Goldman Sachs, India, USA and China are likely to reach US$22.2trillion, US$37.2trillion and US$42trillion economies by 2050. In another report, it indicates that China, an Emerging (stock) market is likely to overtake the U.S.A.
https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/emerging-stock-markets-projected-to-overtake-the-us-by-2030
The speed at which economies are developing is quite interesting, having in mind what AI is yet to offer (affecting 40% of jobs: IMF and ILO reports, 2024) as add-on in complementing the labour force in the next few decades.
One considers China, once a sleeping giant, their optimism, tenacity and determination to ditch the US dollar (and its dorminance) and take over international trade through its currency swaps and other policies, and you are enlightened to conclude that economic management just like central banking is indeed, an art.
From where I sit, I see a “power struggle” that sterns from the motivation of having enough control in geopolitics and international trade and finance after first creating a real value economy for their citizens, and beyond.
In Sub-saharan Africa (SSA), Nigerian projects a US$1trillion – US$4trillion economy by 2035 from the current norminal GDP of US$252.73billion. The two other economies with similar optimism are South Africa (Africa’s biggest economy in nominal terms with an estimated GDP of nearly $400 billion, IMF report, 2023), and Egypt with projections reaching US$800+ billion and US$471+ billion respectively by 2030.
In his article, South African, a sleeping Giant in Africa, Jacques Morriset indicates that economic theory and empirical evidence in fast-growing countries reveals that these fast growing economies took off by rebuilding its public capital stock and dynamizing its businesses, especially by creating synergies between the public and private sectors. https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/africacan/waking-south-africas-economy-requires-government-and-businesses-work-together
In a compounded annual growth rate Ghana has the potential to reach a US$200billion economy, estimated GDP (norminal) looking at its small population vis-a-vis its virgin economy and the untapped numerous opportunities it has at hand if it can reduce, and consolidate the annual cost of leakages/corruption (US$3billion) it incurs thereby channeling it into the agricultural sector to deliberately create a real value economy.
Ghana stands a greater chance towards creating a dynamic and diversified economy, greener job opportunities, for a more resilient and inclusive society. https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/ghana/overview
Real value and assumptive estimates (Compound Annual Growth Rate) for Ghana’s Economy at constant prices in 10yrs time:
Ghana’s Compound Annual Growth Rates (CAGR) over the last 10, 5 and 3 years were 5.5%, 3.9% and 3.7% respectively (World Economics, 2023)
Based on the data above we pick a CAGR of 10%;
GDP0 (2023): US$76.37billion (World Bank Data)
GDPn (2034): US$198.0841billion (apprx US$200billion)
Where n = 10years
CAGR is 10%.
That is;
GDPn = GDP0 x (1 + CAGR)^n
GDPn = US$76.37 billion x (1 + 0.10)^10
GDPn ≈ US$76.37 billion x 2.5937
GDPn ≈ US$198.0841billion
So, the estimated GDP value after 10 years with a CAGR of 10% is approximately US$198.23billion.
A constant growth rate of 10% over the entire period of 10years may seem too ambitious and too optimistic but then again based on available data, it is worthy of note that this achievement is highly possible when when bold and unwavering solutions are presented for the future.
Source: Welbeck Ato Sefah, TheMerchant®️
Economist
