Borussia Dortmund vs Real Madrid Prediction: Champions League Final Preview

• Real Madrid are the favourites to win the UEFA Champions League final, overcoming Borussia Dortmund in 90 minutes in 55.4% of pre-match simulations by the Opta supercomputer.
• Dortmund have only won three of their 14 meetings with Madrid in this competition (D5 L6).
• Should they avoid defeat here, Los Blancos will have gone unbeaten across a European Cup/Champions League season for the first time in their history.

Match Preview

Real Madrid will be aiming to extend their unparalleled record in the UEFA Champions League when they meet Borussia Dortmund in the final on Saturday.

Carlo Ancelotti’s team have lifted Europe’s top continental trophy on 14 occasions. Standing in their way of a record-extending triumph at Wembley Stadium will be Dortmund, who are featuring in just their third final in this competition.

The Bundesliga club were victorious in the 1996-97 showpiece after overcoming Juventus 3-1 for their only Champions League title to date, before faltering in the 2012-13 final against rivals Bayern Munich at Wembley.

The La Liga champions will not care one bit after profiting from a much-discussed error in officiating, with Madrid now preparing for their 18th final in UEFA’s top club tournament. Their previous 17 showpiece appearances are already the most of any team in history.

Though Tuchel may have raged over the stoppage-time decision in the Spanish capital, Madrid will argue they fully deserve their spot in one of the biggest European occasions. Ancelotti’s team have only trailed for 7.5% of their total game time in the Champions League this season (90 minutes out of 1,200), the lowest percentage of any side.

Madrid have also come back to win four matches in Europe this term, with only Barcelona in 1999-2000 and Real themselves in 2016-17 (five each) managing more comeback wins in a single campaign of this competition.

In stark contrast, Dortmund may feel somewhat fortunate to have reached this stage after watching their opponents get denied by the woodwork 12 times in the Champions League this term. That includes six occasions in the two-legged last-four meeting with Paris Saint-Germain and, in total, marks the most a team has ever seen their woodwork hit within a single campaign on record (since 2003-04).

Dortmund’s second-leg hero Hummels has not missed a minute of Champions League action this campaign. He could become the first outfield player to play every minute of a winning season since Madrid’s now-departed star Cristiano Ronaldo in 2017-18, while the last central defender to do so was Sami Hyypiä in 2004-05 with Liverpool.

Individual records aside, Hummels will be praying he and the rest of the defence can keep Vinícius Júnior quiet. The Brazilian has five goals and four assists in the Champions League this season, following on from his seven goals and five assists in 2022-23.

Only one player in the competition’s history has registered 5+ goals and 5+ assists in consecutive seasons, with Luís Figo doing so in 1999-00 for Barcelona (5 goals, 9 assists) and 2000-01 for Real Madrid (5 goals, 7 assists)

Indeed, across the last three campaigns of UEFA’s coveted competition, Vinícius has been directly involved in more goals than any other player (31 – 16 goals, 15 assists). Worryingly for Dortmund, 17 of those have come in the knockout stages (eight goals, nine assists), which is also the most of any player in this period.

As for team news, Dortmund will be without Sébastien Haller, Ramy Bensebaïni and Julien Duranville. Haller’s absence almost guarantees Niclas Füllkrug will start up top, supported by Jadon Sancho, Karim Adeyemi and Julian Brandt.

Meanwhile, Ancelotti must decide between the fit-again Thibaut Courtois and Andriy Lunin in goal. David Alaba and Aurélien Tchouaméni are confirmed as injury absentees, ensuring Toni Kroos will start in midfield in what will be his final club outing of an illustrious career.

At the other end of the spectrum to Kroos, 20-year-old Jude Bellingham will face his former side Dortmund on home soil at England’s national stadium, aiming to capture his first Champions League success.

Borussia Dortmund vs Real Madrid Head-to-Head

This will be the 15th meeting between these two sides in Europe, all of which have been in the Champions League. Madrid are the team Dortmund have faced most often in the competition (14), while the Spanish side have only played more against Bayern (22) and Juventus (16).

Dortmund have only won three of those meetings with Madrid (D5 L6). Among teams the German side have faced at least five times in the competition, only against Manchester City (17%) do they have a lower win percentage than against the 14-time winners (21%).

Despite Madrid winning 3-1 away and 3-2 at home when these two sides last met in the 2017-18 group stage, there is still hope for Dortmund. Neither team has previously managed to win three consecutive games in this fixture in European competition.

Recent Form

Ancelotti’s team are winless in their last two league outings, sharing a goalless draw with Real Betis after being held 4-4 by Villarreal, but that downturn in form could be explained by Madrid placing full focus on this final.

That additional impetus on Europe makes sense as Madrid could go unbeaten across a European Cup/Champions League season for the first time in their history (currently P12 W8 D4), if they avoid defeat on Saturday.

They’d be only the second Spanish side to win the trophy without losing a single game in that campaign, along with Barcelona in 2005-06 (P13 W9 D4).

Meanwhile, Dortmund head into this memorable European night after a disappointing league season that finished in typically inconsistent fashion, losing 3-0 at Mainz before beating Darmstadt 4-0 at Signal Iduna Park.

Terzić’s side finished fifth in the Bundesliga this season, making them the second-lowest ranked German side to compete in a European Cup/Champions League final, after Bayern Munich in 1974-75 (10th).

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Ranking are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Borussia Dortmund vs Real Madrid Prediction

The Opta Super Computer predicts more Champions League glory for Madrid, who triumphed in normal time on Saturday in 55.6% of 10,000 pre-match simulations.

Dortmund succeeded in just 21.4% of those data-led sims inside 90 minutes, while the draw – sending the final to extra-time – was forecast in 23.0%.

Overall in Opta Prediction Madrid’s likelihood of securing a 15th title ranks at 67.4%, leaving Dortmund with a 32.6% probability of their first Champions League success in 27 years.

Borussia Dortmund vs Real Madrid UCL Squads

Borussia Dortmund: Gregor Kobel, Alexander Meyer, Silas Ostrzinski, Marcel Lotka, Nico Schlotterbeck, Ramy Bensebaini, Mats Hummels, Emre Can, Niklas Süle, Julian Ryerson, Ian Maatsen, Lion Semic, Özcan, Jadon Sancho, Felix Nmecha, Marco Reus, Julien Duranville, Marius Wolf, Julian Brandt, Marcel Sabitzer, Jamie Bynoe-Gittens, Sebastien Haller, Niclas Füllkrug, Youssoufa Moukoko, Donyell Malen, Karim Adeyemi.

Head Coach: Edin Terzić

Real Madrid: Thibaut Courtois, Kepa, Andriy Lunin, Lucas Cañizares, Diego Piñeiro, David Alaba, Nacho, Dani Carvajal, Antonio Rüdiger, Ferland Mendy, Éder Militão, Fran García, Álvaro Carrillo, Vinícius Tobias, Jacobo Ramón, Luka Modric, Toni Kroos, Lucas Vázquez, Dani Ceballos, Brahim Díaz, Aurélien Tchouaméni, Federico Valverde, Jude Bellingham, Eduardo Camavinga, Arda Güler, Nico Paz, Mario Martín, Joselu, Vinícius Júnior, Rodrygo, Gonzalo García.

Head Coach: Carlo Ancelotti

Source: The Analyst