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Liverpool vs Everton: Prediction and Preview

Nazir Hamzah October 20, 2023

352 6 minutes read

The Merseyside derby kicks off proceedings on Saturday as Premier League action resumes. We look ahead to the game with our Liverpool vs Everton prediction and preview.

Liverpool vs Everton: The Quick Hits

Liverpool are strong favourites to overcome rivals Everton on Saturday, with the Opta supercomputer prediction giving the Reds a 67% chance of victory.
Liverpool have only lost one of their last 25 Premier League games against the Toffees (W11 D13), suffering a 2-0 home defeat behind closed doors in February 2021.
Mohamed Salah has 27 goal involvements in his last 23 league appearances (16 goals, 11 assists). The Egyptian has also scored or assisted in 12 successive league outings at Anfield.

Match Preview

The Premier League is back with a bang after the international break on Saturday, and they don’t come much bigger than Matchday 9’s early kick-off. Liverpool face Everton in the first Merseyside derby of 2023-24 at Anfield, looking to return to winning ways and draw level with Tottenham and Arsenal at the top of the standings.

Liverpool emerge from the brief hiatus fourth in the Premier League table following a lively 2-2 draw against Brighton on MD 8. Mohamed Salah’s brace put Jürgen Klopp’s men on course for victory after Simon Adingra’s audacious opener, but Lewis Dunk struck late on to ensure the spoils were shared.

That game saw a worrying trend continue for the slow-starting Reds, who have conceded first in 21 of 46 Premier League games since the start of last season, and five of eight this campaign. Only Crystal Palace (25) have won more Premier League points than Liverpool (24) after going 1-0 down since the start of 2022-23, but Klopp will hope a comeback isn’t required against Everton.

Saturday’s visitors have endured a miserable time in recent derbies, only winning one of their last 25 Premier League meetings with Liverpool (13 draws, 11 defeats) – a 2-0 success in an empty Anfield in February 2021, which is also the only time Everton have beaten their rivals in their own stadium since the turn of the millennium.

Salah has enjoyed recent Merseyside tussles more than most, scoring five goals in nine league appearances for Liverpool against Everton. The Egyptian approaches Saturday’s game in outstanding form, having provided 27 goal contributions (16 goals, 11 assists) in his last 23 league outings. At Anfield, Salah has scored or assisted in each of his last 12 league games, netting 12 goals and teeing up three in that time.

Klopp has several selection dilemmas to ponder ahead of Saturday’s game. Cody Gakpo is nearing fitness after sustaining a knee injury in the recent defeat at Tottenham, but if the Dutchman misses out, effervescent striker Darwin Núñez should keep his place. Of the 80 players to make 100 or more off-the-ball runs in the Premier League this season, Núñez has made the highest share of his into the penalty area (39%, 52/133).

However, Núñez, like fellow South Americans Alisson, Luis Díaz and Alexis Mac Allister, faced a long trip home after CONMEBOL’s midweek 2026 FIFA World Cup qualifiers, and also spoke of cramp after he scored and assisted in Uruguay’s win over Brazil, so Klopp could have further problems to contend with.

Trent Alexander-Arnold should be fresh after only featuring in England’s friendly with Australia over the break, but Liverpool are likely to be without Andy Robertson after he suffered a shoulder injury in Scotland’s defeat in Spain, with Kostas Tsimikas his natural replacement. Elsewhere, Curtis Jones is still suspended after his red card at Tottenham, though Diogo Jota returns from suspension after his own dismissal in that game.

Question marks remain over the fitness of Spanish midfield pair Thiago Alcântara and Stefan Bajcetic, while Dominik Szoboszlai should retain his place, with Ryan Gravenberch potentially in line for his first Premier League start in Jones’ absence.

Klopp, like counterpart Sean Dyche, will be stressing the importance of cool heads on Saturday. Games between Liverpool and Everton have featured more red cards than any other fixture in Premier League history (22).

Dyche was able to breathe a sigh of relief as Everton secured their first home win of the season before the international break, beating Bournemouth 3-0 to ease the mounting pressure on the former Burnley boss.

Everton have now recorded two wins in their last three league games (also losing to Luton Town), as many as in their previous 16. Having beaten Brentford on their most recent road trip, they could win back-to-back away league games for the first time since May 2021 under Carlo Ancelotti.

Leeds United loanee Jack Harrison played a starring role last time out, scoring with a terrific lob before adding an assist on his first league start for Everton. Harrison’s first Premier League goal ever came against Liverpool at Anfield in September 2020, and he also played in Leeds’ 2-1 win there last October – Liverpool’s most recent home league defeat.

Everton have failed to score in 26 Premier League matches against Liverpool – more than against any other opponent. Alongside Harrison, Dwight McNeil and Dominic Calvert-Lewin will be tasked with avoiding another blank on Saturday.

To that end, Everton’s chance conversion issues have been a major talking point this season. According to Opta’s expected points model, Everton sit a whopping 11 places lower in the league table than their expected goals (xG)

Calvert-Lewin will likely retain his starting spot ahead of Beto, and Dyche is close to having a fully fit squad available. Idrissa Gueye could come in after recovering from injury to feature for Senegal, while André Gomes and Seamus Coleman are also making positive progress.

Liverpool vs Everton Head-to-Head

Having won five of their first 11 Premier League fixtures against Liverpool (four draws, two defeats), Everton have only won five of the last 51 against their neighbours (drawn 21, lost 25).

Everton have at least managed to avoid defeat against the Reds on plenty of occasions. The Merseyside derby has seen more draws than any other fixture in English Football League history, with 69 of the teams’ previous 208 meetings ending level – Liverpool have 81 wins, with Everton triumphing 58 times.

The Toffees have, however, failed to score in their last three Premier League matches against Liverpool. They last went more successive Merseyside derbies without netting in the league between 1972 and 1976, failing to score in nine consecutive meetings.

Liverpool picked up their first league win of 2023 when the teams last met in February, with Salah and Gakpo scoring in a 2-0 victory at Anfield to leave Everton in the relegation zone.

The previous meeting finished goalless at Goodison Park September 2022, with Jordan Pickford making a stunning save to deny Salah a stoppage-time winner.

Recent Form

Liverpool boast a fearsome record at Anfield, having only lost one of their last 45 home Premier League games (34 wins, 10 draws). The Reds are unbeaten in 15 since a 2-1 defeat to Leeds last October.

Furthermore, Klopp’s side have only failed to score in one of their last 45 home league outings, playing out a goalless draw with Chelsea in January.

Saturday’s hosts have scored in each of their last 18 Premier League games, with only Brighton (24) and Tottenham (20) currently enjoying longer such runs. They started the season well, securing wins over Bournemouth, Newcastle, Aston Villa, Wolves and West Ham, though just one point from trips to Spurs and Brighton since then slowed them down a bit.

Despite their lowly league position, Everton have only lost one of their last seven away games in the Premier League, going down 4-0 at Aston Villa on Matchday 2 of this season.

It was a poor start to the campaign for Dyche’s men, but three wins from their last four in all competitions against Brentford, Villa (EFL Cup) and Bournemouth sees them arrive at Anfield in decent form.

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Ranking are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.