Burnley vs Chelsea: Prediction and Preview

Both teams go into the Premier League match at Turf Moor on a high after recording wins this week. We look ahead to the game with our data-powered Burnley vs Chelsea prediction and preview.

• Chelsea (45.1%) are favourites to defeat Burnley (25.7%), according to the Opta supercomputer.
• Both sides come into the game on a high after earning much-needed Premier League wins earlier this week.
• Chelsea have beaten Burnley in seven of their last eight trips to Turf Moor, with the other match being a draw.

Match Preview

Burnley and Chelsea both feel much better about themselves going into their Premier League match at Turf Moor on Saturday, though managers Vincent Kompany and Mauricio Pochettino know there is so much more still to do.

Chelsea had only recorded one win from their first six Premier League matches before their 2-0 away victory against rivals Fulham on Monday, with Mykhailo Mudryk scoring his first goal for the club and Armando Broja also finding the target in the absence of suspended striker Nicolas Jackson.

A day later, Burnley got their first win of the season in their re-arranged fixture at Luton Town. Lyle Foster scored his third goal of the Premier League season for Burnley, but after a late equaliser from Elijah Adebayo for the hosts, Kompany’s men were reliant on a dramatic and impressive winner from substitute Jacob Bruun Larsen to triumph 2-1.

It was a vital result for Burnley, who have had to contend with some brutal fixtures to start the season.

They have already faced the likes of Manchester City, Aston Villa, Tottenham, Manchester United and Newcastle United, providing Kompany with a reminder of how hard the top flight will be even with his side tipped to handle the highest level better than their fellow promoted sides Sheffield United and Luton after winning the Championship.

Despite their recent victories, neither side will be content to finish in their current positions in the league standings, with Burnley down in 18th and Chelsea sitting 11th after seven matches.

Some points at home would be a huge boost for Burnley, who have lost all four of their Premier League games at Turf Moor this season. This weekend, the Clarets and Everton are both trying to avoid becoming the first teams since Newcastle in 2018-19 to lose five straight matches in front of their own fans to kick off an EPL campaign.

Chelsea, meanwhile, will be feeling the pressure to generate some momentum after the Fulham victory, particularly with a daunting gauntlet of matches looming after the October international break.

When club football returns, their next seven top-flight matches are against Arsenal, Brentford, Tottenham, Man City, Newcastle, Man Utd and Brighton, so points will not come easily as they bid to close the gap to the European positions, even as their young squad grows in familiarity as they play more matches together.

Pochettino typically fares well against promoted opponents. While he lost to Burnley the last time he faced them as Tottenham boss, he has the highest win rate of any Premier League manager to have played promoted teams 10 times or more. In the case of Pochettino, he has taken charge of 41 such matches and triumphed in 35 of them for a win rate of 85.4%.

Raheem Sterling tends to perform well against promoted opposition too. The England forward has been involved in 18 goals in his last 17 EPL games against sides who have stepped up a division, with 14 goals and four assists. He netted a double against Luton earlier this season.

With the likes of Christopher Nkunku and Ben Chilwell among a host of key players out injured, the Blues are hopeful Moisés Caicedo and Mudryk will be passed fit after suffering minor injuries at Fulham, while the hosts will check on the fitness of midfielder Aaron Ramsey.

If either team does emerge triumphant on Saturday, they will be toasting a fine week that might just turn their season around.

Burnley vs Chelsea Head-to-Head

Chelsea have historically dominated this fixture and were in their element the last time these two teams met in March 2022, romping to a 4-0 victory at Turf Moor under Thomas Tuchel.

A comfort for Burnley is that it was Kai Havertz – now representing Arsenal rather than Chelsea – who did the most damage by scoring a double. Reece James registered a goal and an assist while Christian Pulisic was also on target.

The match at Stamford Bridge earlier that season had been a closer affair. James set up Havertz for a headed opener, but Nick Pope played well in goal for Burnley to keep the game competitive before Matej Vydra snatched a late equaliser in a 1-1 draw.

Overall, Burnley have won just one of their 16 Premier League matches against Chelsea, with 11 defeats in that troubling sequence.

And in terms of matches at Turf Moor, it’s an impressive seven wins from their last eight visits for Chelsea, with the other contest ending in a draw. No other team in EPL history has played more away games against an opponent without losing.

Burnley have found it hard to keep Chelsea out and they are without a single clean sheet in 16 top-flight games against the Blues. It is more than 50 years since they last stopped Chelsea from scoring in the top division – that was a 1-0 win back in 1973.

Recent Form

Despite the huge turnover in their squad, Chelsea would have expected to have more than eight points at this stage.

Pochettino’s side were comfortable against Fulham, and had generated higher expected goals totals than Aston Villa, Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest in their three previous league fixtures, despite only picking up one point from those contests.

Chelsea did have a morale-boosting win over Brighton in the EFL Cup at Stamford Bridge last week and will be optimistic of reaching the last eight after being paired at home to Championship club Blackburn Rovers in the last 16.

Keeping things tight is always important, but it seems to be particularly crucial in Chelsea’s case. They have beaten Luton and Fulham in the league this season while keeping a clean sheet but have only been able to win two of the previous 26 top-flight games when they have conceded once or more, with 17 defeats in that run.

Goalkeeper Robert Sánchez has now kept three clean sheets in his last five matches across all competitions, conceding just twice. That is a welcome run after the Blues had gone 11 straight top-flight matches without a shutout before that.

In a sign of how difficult this year has been for Chelsea, they are now looking to win consecutive Premier League games for the first time since March.

And it is even longer since they last won back-to-back away league games, with the previous time they achieved that coming a year ago in October of last season.

While Burnley have found things tough this season, it is now two wins from three in all competitions. Prior to losing 2-0 at Newcastle and earning that vital win at Luton, they thrashed Salford City 4-0 in the EFL Cup to earn a fourth-round tie against relegation rivals Everton.

Opta Power Rankings

The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.

Burnley vs Chelsea Prediction

The Opta supercomputer has Chelsea as the most likely winners when they take on Burnley, but the system is not expecting a one-sided contest.

Chelsea have a higher win probability at 45.1%, while Burnley are given a fighting chance of getting something from the game. A home win is given a 25.7% probability, while the draw has a reasonably high weighting at 29.2%.

Despite their win at Fulham, the Premier League predictions still do not look particularly good for Chelsea, partly due to the quality of opponents they are due to face in the coming weeks.

We ran 10,000 simulations of the 2023-24 campaign and Chelsea’s most likely finish is in fact their current position of 11th. In what looks likely to be a season of transition, the club finished between 8th and 15th a massive 89.9% of the time.

Chelsea make the top four and return to the UEFA Champions League in just 0.2% of simulations, a rate which has crashed down from 15.9% before the season began.

As for Burnley, they are still marginally tipped to avoid relegation, but they are set for an almighty scrap against the drop according to our predictive model. The Clarets most commonly finish 17th in the projections and their relegation chance is now 44%, up markedly from 33.1% in the pre-season.

Source: The Analyst