Arsenal vs Chelsea: Prediction and Stats
Arsenal are on the hunt for a third successive victory against Chelsea in the Premier League, which is something they haven’t achieved since back in February 2004. If they’re looking for lucky omens ahead of this London derby, they’ll have been pleased this game was moved to a Tuesday night kick-off, having never previously lost an EPL match versus Chelsea in midweek (Tuesday-Thursday) with four wins and six draws in those encounters.
Chelsea did win this exact fixture at the Emirates Stadium last season, however. Their 2-0 win on the second matchday of 2021-22 came courtesy of goals from Romelu Lukaku and Reece James, but that was a very different looking Arsenal side. Of the Gunners’ starting XI that day, there’s likely to only be four names in their team this midweek: Rob Holding, Granit Xhaka, Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli.
Just two of Mikel Arteta’s 35 Premier League defeats as Arsenal boss have come against Chelsea, and one was the first he suffered as a head coach in the competition when the Blues beat them 2-1 at the Emirates in December 2019 – just Arteta’s second game in charge. Current Chelsea striker Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang scored the opening goal for Arsenal that day, while Arsenal’s current midfielder Jorginho scored for his former club Chelsea.
Arteta has revealed that William Saliba will still be out of the Arsenal line-up for this match, with the French centre-back joining Takehiro Tomiyasu and midfielder Mohamed Elneny on the sidelines. Chelsea will be sweating on the fitness of top scorer Kai Havertz ahead of the team news being announced pre-game, with Reece James, Armando Broja, Kalidou Koulibaly, Mason Mount and Marc Cucurella already out for the trip to Arsenal.
Last Meeting
Chelsea 0-1 Arsenal: 6 November 2022 (Premier League)
Chelsea attempted just five shots in the whole game, with only one of those hitting the target. These are both the lowest figures Chelsea have posted in a Premier League game this season, while Graham Potter’s side only managed to total 0.29 xG across the 90 minutes – another seasonal low in the league. Kai Havertz was the only Chelsea player to test Aaron Ramsdale in the Arsenal goal, with his shot on target coming in the 34th minute.
Mikel Arteta’s side scored the only goal of the game following a wicked inswinging corner from Bukayo Saka in the 63rd minute, which Gabriel diverted past Chelsea goalkeeper Edouard Mendy.
Recent Form
Arsenal come into this game on a four-game winless streak in the Premier League – their longest such run in the competition since December 2020 (seven in a row). Those four games have seen draws against Liverpool, West Ham and Southampton before a 4-1 loss at the hands of Man City at the Etihad Stadium in a midweek clash last week.
Despite this blip in form, this is still Arsenal’s second-best Premier League points tally after 33 games of a Premier League season (75), behind only the Invincibles’ season of 2003-04 (81 after 33 games). It’s also six points more than they collected in the whole of last season. In fact, the last full PL season in which Arsenal collected more points than they have already in 2022-23 was 2013-14 (79).
The same can’t be said for Chelsea, who have endured a terrible season by their standards. They need to win five points in their remaining six games in order to avoid 2022-23 being their worst-ever points tally in a Premier League campaign, while even if they win all of their final six games, this will still end up being their worst league campaign for six years.
Only four complete Premier League seasons have seen Chelsea lose more matches than they have already this season (13), and three of those were in 42-game campaigns: 1992-93 (14), 1993-94 (17), 1994-95 (14) and 1997-98 (15).
Chelsea have lost all five matches in all competitions since Frank Lampard’s return to the club, their worst losing run since a six-game run in October/November 1993. Across the whole of April, Chelsea scored just one goal in seven matches while netting as many goals for the opposition (César Azpilicueta’s own goal versus Brentford).
The Blues have lost 19 games in total this season and last lost 20 in a single campaign in 1987-88. In fact, they’ve lost 11 of their 26 Premier League matches since Thomas Tuchel departed (W7 D8), or as many as they lost in their 63 games under the German between January 2021 and September 2022 (W35 D17 L11).
Chelsea interim coach Lampard has won just one of his last 15 Premier League games as a manager across his time as Everton and Chelsea boss, collecting just five points from a possible 45. That solitary win came at home to Crystal Palace in October 2022 (3-0).
Key Players
Arsenal: Thomas Partey
Thomas Partey has proven himself as a crucial performer on the pitch during Arsenal’s top-four finish in 2022-23.
The Ghanaian has been integral in and out of possession. Only Oleksandr Zinchenko (64) and William Saliba (63) have averaged more completed passes per 90 minutes for the Gunners in the Premier League this season than Partey (61), while the former Atlético Madrid midfielder has made the most tackles (66) and interceptions (26).
He leads Arsenal players for the number of times he’s regained possession from opponents that have started open-play sequences ending in shots (11) ahead of Saka (nine) and Martin Ødegaard (seven), while only Ødegaard (22) and Leandro Trossard (13) have attempted to unlock more defences with through-balls in the current Arsenal squad.
Chelsea: Wesley Fofana
It’s hard to pick any Chelsea player as a ‘key player’ in their current state, with nearly all of their squad performing well below expected levels.
Chelsea are likely to face a barrage of attacks in this match, so therefore they’ll need a top defensive display from Wesley Fofana on Tuesday. The defender, who started the season at Leicester City, has suffered injury problems this season and only been able to play 876 minutes of action since moving to Stamford Bridge. However, in those minutes, he’s shown glimpses of the quality that led Chelsea to fork out around £70 million for his services.
Fofana averages more interceptions per 90 than any other Chelsea player in the Premier League this season (1.9), while he’s the one defender in the squad that looks to progress from defence with the ball at his feet. His average carry progress upfield of 165 metres per 90 is far more than any other Chelsea player in the Premier League this season (Ben Chilwell and Ruben Loftus-Cheek the next best on 100m).
Arsenal vs Chelsea Prediction
The Opta supercomputer prediction for this match sees Arsenal as the favourites to win at the Emirates Stadium (43.7%) and Chelsea having a 27.8% chance of picking up an away victory. There is a 28.5% chance of a draw on Tuesday night.
Following Manchester City’s win at Fulham on Sunday, Arsenal have lost the top spot in the Premier League ahead of this match. The supercomputer now gives Arsenal just a 5.5% chance of becoming the champions of England this season, with Man City big favourites on 95.5% as they have a one-point lead at the top and a game in hand on the Gunners.
Arsenal have already secured UEFA Champions League football for next season alongside City with the battle to join them heavily favouring Manchester United (96.7% chance) and Newcastle United (95.8%).
Chelsea have had a disastrous season, considering they would have aspired for the title themselves when they began the season under Thomas Tuchel. Since then, Graham Potter has come and gone with Frank Lampard now in charge on an interim basis.
They currently only have an 11.4% chance of finishing the season in the top half of the standings, with their most likely league table position at the end of 2022-23 being 11th (36.9%) or 12th (32.5%). Of all London clubs, only West Ham United are below them in the table, with Crystal Palace, Fulham and Brentford in the three positions directly above them and Tottenham Hotspur in sixth.
Source: The Analyst
