Man City vs Bayern Munich: Preview and Prediction
Man City and Bayern Munich meet for a seventh time in European competition, in this UEFA Champions League fixture at the Etihad Stadium on Tuesday night. The spoils have been shared across the previous six encounters, with three wins apiece – all in the UCL.
Pep Guardiola will face his former side, where he spent three seasons as a head coach between June 2013 and June 2016, before taking up the position at Man City that summer. Although he won the Bundesliga in all three seasons with Bayern, he was never able to win the UEFA Champions League there – his only two UCL trophies as a manager coming at Barcelona in 2008-09 and 2010-11.
Following the sacking of Julian Nagelsmann last month, Thomas Tuchel will take charge of Bayern in this game and come up against Guardiola for the 11th time as manager. It was Tuchel that outfoxed Guardiola in the 2021 UCL final, with his Chelsea side defeating Man City 1-0. Tuchel also knocked Guardiola’s Man City out of the FA Cup at the semi-final stage a month earlier – winning 1-0 at Wembley Stadium. These two met again in the Premier League in 2021-22, with Guardiola getting some sort of revenge with two 1-0 wins across the home and away fixtures that season.
Guardiola has won 54% of his games in the knockout stages of the UEFA Champions League (39/72). Among those with 30+ games in the KO stages (including finals), he has the best win percentage of any manager and is the only one to have won more than half of his games. Can he lead Man City to victory again in this game?
One man that may cause the Premier League club problems is experienced Bayern forward Thomas Müller, who has ended on the winning side on 99 of his 140 appearances in the UEFA Champions League. Should he feature in a victory for Bayern Munich here, he’d be the third player with 100 wins in the competition along with Cristiano Ronaldo (115) and Iker Casillas (101), and the first to do so with a single club.
Previous Meeting
Manchester City 3-2 Bayern Munich: 25 November 2014 (Champions League)
The last meeting between Man City and Bayern came back in the group stage of the 2014-15 UEFA Champions League, where City won a must-win game versus the German giants at the Etihad Stadium.
Bayern had opened their 2014-15 UCL campaign with a 1-0 home win over Man City in Munich, thanks to an injury-time strike from Jérôme Boateng. The meeting between the two clubs on MD5 that season came with Bayern already qualified for the knockout stages, and Man City on a measly two points from four games (W0 D2 L2). If they were to stand any chance of qualifying, they had to win this match and their final group game away in Rome vs. AS Roma. They did just that.
The hero on the night was their Argentine superstar Sergio Agüero, who scored a hat-trick, including an injury-time winner after only scoring the equaliser in the 85th minute. This was Agüero’s first UCL hat-trick and it was enough to make Xabi Alonso and Robert Lewandowski’s goals for Bayern worthless in the 3-2 win.
It was the second season in a row that Man City had enjoyed a 3-2 Champions League win over Bayern, having done so in the 2013-14 group stage, too. In that match, Bayern were 2-0 up thanks to goals from Thomas Müller and Mario Götze before City turned it around via goals from David Silva, an Aleksandar Kolarov penalty and James Milner. The last four meetings between these two clubs saw Pep Guardiola manage Bayern versus his current club City (won two, lost two).
Recent Form
Manchester City come into this match on an eight-game winning run in all competitions, while they are unbeaten in each of their last 12 games (W10 D2) since losing 1-0 away at Tottenham in the Premier League on 5 February. They have scored 31 goals across those eight wins, averaging 3.88 goals per game on this run.
Their Premier League match at Southampton on Saturday saw them impress in a 4-1 victory, thanks to goals from Erling Haaland (two), Jack Grealish and a Julián Álvarez penalty.
Since the return of action following the 2022 FIFA World Cup, Man City are unbeaten in 11 competitive games at the Etihad Stadium (W10 D1).
Bayern have alternated between a win and a defeat in their last five matches (W3 D0 L2), losing 2-1 to Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga and at home to Freiburg in the DFB Pokal last midweek. They did avenge that defeat on Saturday, however, beating Freiburg 1-0 away from home in the league thanks to a second half Matthijs de Ligt goal.
Manchester City are unbeaten in the UEFA Champions League so far this season, winning five and drawing three of their eight matches. They topped Group G ahead of Borussia Dortmund, Sevilla and FC Copenhagen, before defeating another Bundesliga club – RB Leipzig – 8-1 on aggregate in the round of 16. The second leg of that tie saw them win 7-0 at the Etihad Stadium, with Erling Haaland scoring a record-equalling five goals. It was their joint-biggest UCL win, alongside a 7-0 victory against fellow German club Schalke 04 in the 2018-19 last 16.
Bayern Munich have made it to the 2022-23 UCL quarter-finals after winning arguably the toughest group of all this season – Group C, ahead of Internazionale, Barcelona and Viktoria Plzeň. They then defeated Paris Saint-Germain 3-0 on aggregate in the round of 16 after winning 1-0 away and 2-0 at home.
The record Bundesliga champions have the meanest defence in the UCL this season, with the fewest goals conceded (two) and most clean sheets (seven). It’s Man City, however, that have allowed the lowest quality chances per game on average in the competition in 2022-23, with their 0.59 xG against per game superior to fellow quarter-finalists Chelsea (0.83) and Bayern (0.98). Given the strength of both sides’ defence.
Key Players
Manchester City: Erling Haaland
Erling Haaland comes into this match in ridiculous form. His last four competitive appearances have seen him score 11 goals – one versus Crystal Palace in the Premier League, five against RB Leipzig in his last UCL appearance, a hat-trick versus Burnley in the FA Cup just four days later.
Haaland is now on 44 competitive goals for the season at Man City, which equals the record for a player at a Premier League club across all competitions within a single season alongside Ruud van Nistelrooy for Man Utd in 2002-03 and Mohamed Salah for Liverpool in 2017-18.
Unsurprisingly, Haaland tops the UEFA Champions League goal charts in 2022-23 with 10 goals. With those 10 goals in six appearances for Manchester City in the UEFA Champions League, it’s the joint-fewest games needed for a player to reach double figures in the competition for a specific club, along with Sébastien Haller for Ajax (six).
Erling Haaland has scored five goals in seven career appearances against Bayern Munich (all for Borussia Dortmund) and yet has ended on the losing side in all seven matches. Will Haaland score and end up on the losing side against Bayern yet again? You can build that exact bet with bet365, here.
Bayern Munich: Jamal Musiala
Jamal Musiala has struggled post-World Cup at Bayern Munich but is still a major threat to opposition defences.
Since the return of action in Germany, Musiala has scored three and assisted three more in 16 competitive appearances for Bayern (1,055 mins). Saturday’s 1-0 win over Freiburg saw him assist the only goal of the game and create three chances for his team-mates – his assist took him to 12 for the 2022-23 season, which is more than any other Bayern player this campaign.
His threat from ball carries is evident. He has a team-high 50 shot involvements following a carry this season, while his 120 opposition-half take-ons is only fewer than Leroy Sané (122) and Alphonso Davies (130) at the German club.
Musiala has also created more open-play chances than any other Bayern player in 2022-23 (61) and Man City will need to keep a close eye on the German youngster.
Man City vs Bayern Munich Prediction
Home advantage is key in the Opta supercomputer’s eyes, with Manchester City being tipped as favourites for this Champions League match on Tuesday. They are being given a 54.9% chance of winning the match ahead of kick-off, with the away side Bayern given just over a one-in-five chance of picking up an away win to take back to Munich (22.6%).
A draw would also be a great result for Bayern, and the chances of that are 22.5% with the Opta supercomputer.
Manchester City are the overall favourites to win the entire 2022-23 UEFA Champions League with the Opta supercomputer. Pep Guardiola’s side currently have a 28.2% chance of winning it all, ahead of Serie A champions elect Napoli (21.1%) and City’s quarter-final opponents Bayern Munich (18.5%).
The outsiders are Premier League side Chelsea, who are given the lowest chance of winning the UCL at 1.9%, while their quarter-final opponents and reigning champions Real Madrid are fourth favourites at 12.5%.
Italian rivals Internazionale (7.5%) and Milan (5.1%) are being given an outside chance of winning the trophy, while Portuguese giants Benfica are given a 5.1% chance of lifting the trophy in the Atatürk Olympic Stadium, Istanbul on 10 June according to the Opta supercomputer projections.
Who do you think will win the UEFA Champions League in 2022-23? All the latest odds are here.
Man City vs Bayern Munich UCL Squads
Manchester City: Stefan Ortega, Ederson, Scott Carson, Kyle Walker, Rúben Dias, John Stones, Nathan Aké, Aymeric Laporte, Sergio Gómez, Manuel Akanji, Rico Lewis*, Kalvin Phillips, İlkay Gündoğan, Jack Grealish, Rodri, Kevin De Bruyne, Bernardo Silva, Riyad Mahrez, Máximo Perrone, Phil Foden, Cole Palmer*, Erling Haaland, Julián Álvarez.
Bayern Munich: Manuel Neuer, Sven Ulreich, Yann Sommer, Johannes Schenk*, Tom Hülsmann*, Dayot Upamecano, Matthijs de Ligt, Benjamin Pavard, Bouna Sarr, Lucas Hernández, João Cancelo, Daley Blind, Yusuf Kabadayi*, Noussair Mazraoui, Josip Stanišić, Joshua Kimmich, Leon Goretzka, Leroy Sané, Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting, Paul Wanner, Alphonso Davies, Ryan Gravenberch, Jamal Musiala, Arijon Ibrahimovic*, Serge Gnabry, Kingsley Coman, Sadio Mané, Thomas Müller, Mathys Tel.
Source: Opta
